Benfica will be aiming to bounce back from their defeat against FC Porto in Friday's clássico and get straight back on the winning path as they welcome Russian champions Zenit St Petersburg to the Estádio da Luz on Tuesday night.
What can the Eagles expect from André Villas Boas' team? Russian football expert Toke Theilade tells PortuGOAL about Benfica's Champions League opponents.
1. Zenit are currently in way down in 6th place in the Russian League, but their Champions League group stage campaign was extremely impressive. Is that coincidence or are Zenit focusing on European play this season?
I believe there are two answers to this question. First of all, Zenit were lucky to end up in a relatively easy group with Valencia and Lyon who have both been far from their usual level this season and then Gent from Belgium. I don’t think Zenit have focused more on Champions League than they usually do, as it is always among their top priorities. However, after they finally won the league for the first time in three years last season, I think it is correct to assume that André Villas-Boas was extra eager to gain European success this season.
Zenit’s sixth place in the league is strange really. In most of the games, they have dominated, but towards the end of the autumn, they dropped some unnecessary points losing 4-1 in Grozny to Terek and drawing at home against Ufa. When that is said, they are still only seven points from CSKA on the first place, and I fully expect them to qualify for Champions League once again next season.
2. What is their current form? How do you think the winter break will affect the team?
It is difficult to say much about their current form. They haven’t played a competitive match since they lost against Gent in the beginning of December. Zenit have been on three training camps this winter, starting in UAE where they played three matches against local teams and won them all. Afterwards they went to Algarve to take part in the Atlantic Cup tournament, which they won after a victory against the Swedish champions Norrköping in the final. The last training camp was held in Spain. Zenit are undefeated this winter, but none of the teams they have faced have been near Benfica’s level.
Friendlies can’t be compared to competitive matches, so I expect Zenit to need some time to get started. This is however not the first time Zenit play a European fixture after the winter break, and last year we saw them beat PSV in the Europa League.
3. Ones to watch - Who are Zenit's key players?
I don’t think I surprise anyone when I highlight Hulk. The Brazilian is the absolute star on Zenit’s roster, and he has been in great form this season. After Villas-Boas took over Zenit, Hulk has gone through somewhat of a transformation, and he is now a great teamplayer who often sets his teammates up for goals. This season he has directly contributed to 20 goals, scoring eight of them himself, which is the most in the league.
If we are to look at some of the more ‘unknown’ players on the team, winger Oleg Shatov is a player who deserves more recognition from the world of football.
After moving to Zenit from Anzhi back in 2013, Oleg Shatov has slowly gotten more and more responsibility on the team. The first part of this season has been his best so far, and he has established himself as a star for both Zenit and the Russian national team.
4. Strong points/weak points – what must Benfica beware of and what can they exploit?
Zenit have their biggest strengths in the offense. It is here we find the biggest stars and game changers. With guys like Hulk, Dzyuba, Shatov, Witsel, Danny and the newcomer Kokorin in the squad, Zenit have plenty of weapons. Benfica especially needs to look out for Zenit’s counter attacks, as I expect the Blue-White-Sky Blues to come with a cautious approach to the game.
Zenit’s big weakness is their lack of competitive matches. While I expect the players to be in good physical shape, they haven’t played in a high pace in a long time. I watched their friendlies at the Atlantic Cup, and while they won the trophy, it was far from impressive. The passing was slow and they didn’t create many chances. Against a club like Benfica, they need to be on a completely different level. AVB has also highlighted that his side’s biggest weakness is the winter break. However, you can also argue that Zenit are more physically fresh than Benfica, and it is also a good thing that Zenit have been allowed to focus only on the Benfica match during their break.
Furthermore, Zenit’s fortunes are relying on Hulk playing on his top level. If Benfica can close down Hulk, they are off to a good start.
5. Formation and playing style – what system do they usually play? Would you describe Zenit generically as an attacking or a defensive team?
Zenit usually come in an offensive 4-3-3 with former Benfica player Javi Garcia being the only defensive minded midfielder. Against Benfica however, I expect Zenit to turn around the triangle on the midfield and use Javi Garcia together with either Artur Yusupov or the new signing Mauricio to offer a better balance in the midfield.
Zenit are a team who prefers to control the ball, which is proved by the fact that only CSKA have the ball more per game in the Russian Premier League than Zenit.
6. Mood in the camp – judging by player/coach quotes regarding this game, do you think Zenit come into the tie in a confident frame of mind?
Confidence is a fragile thing, but there are no reasons for the Zenit players not to feel good at the moment. They have won all their friendlies, and judging by the pictures on the various social media accounts, the players have also had time to enjoy themselves, for example they went paintballing the other day.
7. With AVB, Hulk, Witsel, Javi Garcia, Garay, Danny, Neto, etc. there are plenty of links between Zenit's current set-up and Portugal and Benfica. Have the players/coach talked about this? Is it considered an advantage? What was the reaction to landing Benfica in the draw?
There have been many rumours of Villas-Boas returning to FC Porto after this season, but so far he has refused to comment on them, stating that he is only focusing on Zenit at the moment.
Looking at the teams Zenit could have faced, there is a feeling that Benfica is certainly among the easier teams, and that facing Juventus, PSG, Roma or Arsenal would have been a disaster. When that is said, I have noticed many fans being annoyed by facing Benfica because Zenit also faced them in 2012 and 2014.
Axel Witsel has stated that Da Luz is a very special place for him, and I think him, Javi Garcia and Ezequiel Garay will be happy to be back. In the end however, I don’t think the ties between some of the players and then Portugal matters that much. When the match starts they won’t think about that, but be focused on the game.
8. What are the Russian press saying about the match?
People are generally optimistic on Zenit’s behalf. A good example of this is that more than 80% of the readers of Russia’s biggest sports paper Sport-Express has voted that Zenit will eliminate Benfica and advance to the quarterfinals. Zenit will however be without the strong right back Igor Smolnikov who is still recovering from an injury, which is bad news.
9. What do you think the result of the match will be?
This is a difficult match to predict, as I see the teams as very even. Benfica’s form looks very impressive, but I hope Zenit can repeat the two victories from 2014. Zenit are better now than they were then, and if they can score a goal or two in Lisbon and don’t lose by more than one goal, I think they can take the victory in St. Petersburg. This is Villas-Boas’ last four months in Russia, and he seems determined to end on a good note.
Our thanks to Toke Theilade (Twitter @Theilade) from the excellent Russian Football News website.
