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| Friday, 15 June 2012 11:24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Group of Deathly PermutationsPortugal's possibilities and probabilities of reaching quarter-finals We always knew it would be tight. But as we approach the final round of matches in Group B, working out the possibilities and permutations of who might qualify is proving to be more than a little difficult. So here at PortuGOAL we have tried to make it easy for you. Not that we managed it…Here is how the table looks at the moment:
Here are some simple, uncomplicated facts. Germany simply need a draw or better to guarantee their qualification. If Denmark beat Germany then they are guaranteed to qualify, either at the expense of Portugal or Germany. If Denmark lose to Germany then they cannot qualify for the quarter-finals under any circumstances.
If both Denmark v Germany and Portugal v Netherlands were to end in a draw, Portugal would go through thanks to head-to-head record vs Denmark. If Portugal lose, Denmark would only need a point to secure qualification. If Denmark lose, then Portugal would only need a point to secure qualification.
Netherlands only hope is to beat Portugal and hope that Germany beat Denmark. Even then it would come down to a mini-league. This is where it gets a little tricky…
Calculators at the readyIf after the third round of matches two or more teams are tied on points (for example if Denmark or Portugal were both to win, or if Germany and the Netherlands were both to win), the teams that qualify would then be decided by a mini-league, based on just the results involving the tied nations.
Since all teams in the mini-league would automatically be level on points, qualification would then be decided on goal difference. If goal difference were equal then it would then come down to goals scored. If two teams are then still tied the mini-league would shrink to only include those two teams, with the same criteria (goal difference and goals scored) being applied. If there is still nothing to choose between the two teams tied, it would then come down to goal difference and goals scored in the original group league with all four teams involved.
For Portugal to qualify, the simplest way of thinking about it is that they must match Denmark’s result against Germany.
The only way that they could do so and still go out would be if both teams were to score three goals or more and win by a margin of one (3-2, 4-3, 5-4, etc), since Germany and Portugal would have identical goal difference but Germany would go through thanks to their head-to-head record against Portugal. But that outcome is unlikely.
This table can probably explain it a little better than we can:
 For large-scale image of table click here. If all of these ins and outs have got your head in a spin then here are some cold, hard figures.  Our friends at Euro Club Index (http://www.euroclubindex.com, @EuroClubIndex) have come up with the percentage chances of each team qualifying, based on the strength of each team and the probability of the necessary results taking place. Here is what they found: % chance of qualifying: Germany - 94.2%
Portugal - 56.7%
Denmark - 39.6%
Netherlands - 9.5%
Odds provided by William Hill bear this out, with both Germany and Portugal odds-on to qualify:
Odds of qualifying:
Germany – 1/100
Portugal – 2/5
Denmark – 11/4
Netherlands – 11/2.
Portugal certainly seem to be in a strong position heading into the final round of matches. Both the stats and bookies say so. So if you are looking for assurance we hope we have provided you with some. But then again when was football ever predictable? Let’s just hope Sunday doesn’t prove to be too much of a traumatic experience, and the calculators can stay in the cupboard!
by Tom Clee
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I've been seing you posting recently on portugoal.net!
Come and join us tonight to celebrate together! I'll be watching the game tonight in a pub called Calibri-Hamra/Beirut(Next to London Bar)!
I'll be wearing a pull&Bear Polo with Portugal written on it and number 7 at the back+ the portuguese flag over me!
Come on portuguese fans all around the world we'll be doing it in a few hours zats m suuuuuuuuuure!
Forca Portugal!
Expected return on £4 bet:
=(11 x 0.396) - (4 x 0.604)
=4.356 - 2.416
= + £1.94
who says the odds are always in the houses favour?
While Germany may dislike England, they tend to respect them. Netherlands and Germany don't respect each other. A bit of jealously between each other.
Fox Sports had a "Rivalry" show recently that showed how much the players and fans dislike each other.
Germany will want to win so they can lock up winning the group. Plain and simple.
It won't be easy because nothing comes easy for us, but I'm confident in Portugal winning and advancing.
The only way that Portual wins and does not advance, is if Denmark wins by 1 goal and scores at least 3 goals..... highly unlikely.
So for me, Portual wins, they're in (fingers crossed)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_Group_B
However, I am strangely optimistic about Sunday.
Netherlands have been shockingly poor, especially in defense. I feel like their midfield up is world class, but their defense is aging, and has not performed this EuroCup. Fortunately, Portugal is coming off a win, and Holland is coming off two losses. For once, Portugal has psychological leverage going into a crucial match.
There is no reason that Portugal can't come away with 3 points Sunday. Add to that their main competitor for qualification (Denmark) is playing Germany (an incredibly difficult opponent) and Portugal actually has alot going for it.
That being said, I hope they go out and give 150% on Sunday. Football laughs in the face of stastics and logic, so anything can happen. Lets make it happen, meu amigos!
Prediction: Portugal win 3-1.
No way in hell will Portugal not make it, I think we will win by one goal like some have said here. Maybe 3-2 or 2-1, but even if we lose by two goals but score at least one goal, we'll be good. The odds are definitely in our favor. Can't wait for the game! Forca Portugal!
I'm not sure if this is accurate. For example, if Denmark beats Germany by 1-0 & Portugal beats Holland by 1-0, then how is Denmark qualified? In this scenario all 3 teams are on 6 points & each team would have won 1 & lost 1 to each other. But Germany would still have a 1 goal edge over both Portugal & Denmark................& Portugal would have the head to head edge over Denmark. So Germany & Portugal would qualify. Am I not correct??
In a perfect world, Portugal and Germany will both be up 2-0 at halftime and we can rest easy over the final 45. Instead we'll be holding our breath, crossing our fingers, pulling our hair out and cursing our team simultaneously for 95 minutes on Sunday.
"We have six points against two very strong opponents and no other team have two wins so far," said Flick. "We have got an optimal return and we now need a good performance over 90 minutes against Denmark and then we will have taken the step that we all wanted. We have six points, no more and no less, and it is important we beat Denmark to win the group so that we can play the next game in Gdansk."
Although if Portugal lose to Holland it wont be so important for them to get the win.
Germany on the other hand have only ever failed to qualify for the knockout stages at the euros in 84,2000 ( obviously in Portugal's group ) and in 2004 when the tournament was held in ... Portugal
Let's hope history repeats itself !
It is somewhat reassuing to know that Portugal have a slight edge to qualify over the other two teams. I just hope that the Danes aren't able to get a result against Germany. The good thing is that since there is still a chance that the Germans may not qualify (although highly unlikely), they will likely be playing for the win against Denmark and not sitting back.
The only thing is perhaps not very good for Portugal is that their game takes place before the Germany and Denmark game. This means that if they lose against Holland, for example, The Germans will have qualified automatically and the Danes will know that they only need a point to qualify. This could lead to a mutual agreement of sorts on the part of both clubs to qualify by playing out a draw. Since Portugal losing to Holland is a definite possibility, since the Dutch have nothing to show for their campaign so far and they know they need a big win to have any chance of qualifying, I could see this result play itself out.
In any case, I would like to think the Germans are more honourable than that and that they will play for a win no matter the circumstances. Here's hoping we have something to celebrate come Sunday. Forca Portugal