I’ll be honest and admit that I had envisioned the writing of this piece going a little differently. By this point in the tournament, I had hoped to be focusing more on our knockout round opponents and gushing about individual performances as Portugal cruised through Group F.
The “gods of football” saw fit to deny that projection from materializing.
What has transpired instead leaves me with the unenviable task of trying to piece together the good and the bad into an intelligible composite. We have to be able to make sense of the extraordinary events of the last two matches, don’t we? Our evening in Paris especially (below), became almost a parody of everything that frustrates long-suffering fans of the Seleção.
If you had told me before the tournament that Portugal would have 50 total attempts in their first two matches, I don’t think I would have been surprised. If you would have then told me that Portugal would have only 1 goal and 2 points in Group F to show for it, I simply would not have believed it.
And that only tells part of what is a very exasperating story. This group has not gone as predicted. In my tournament preview, I envisaged three wins from three. And goals. Neither of those two predictions have transpired. Even so, in perhaps the most extraordinary turn of events, our 50 attempts-per-goal ratio has actually been enough to put us in position to advance as group winners (pending other results).
But maybe these results are exactly what we should have always anticipated. Portugal’s historical record against stubborn defensive units is quite well known. Even at the 2006 World Cup, Portugal only beat Angola 1-0 despite creating a host of chances and generally running through the African side, who were making their first ever appearance at the World Cup. Somehow, now that the most obvious result of Portugal’s Group F matches has been realized, we are aghast.
In situations like these it is more reasonable to consider generalities rather than the often infuriating particulars. Ronaldo’s performances, shots hitting the woodwork, questionable substitutions or lineups, etc, are all specifics that can be considered in some capacity, yet the sum whole is still quite positive: defeat Hungary and we’ll advance as either the Group winner or Runner-Up.
One point from my pre-tournament article that has proven true is that winning is often torturous. Perhaps no team in this Euros has suffered more unjustly than Portugal. In the expanded 24 team format, teams are rewarded for being defensive so as to protect a draw and earn a point which may prove crucial in securing at least a third place finish. As a result, many of the games in the first two match-days have been bland and low scoring. The flip side is that match-day three might prove to be as chaotic as the opening rounds were cautious. In the mayhem, Portugal must still fancy their chances against Hungary.
This (video) must not be the defining moment of these Euros. But it certainly has summarized the majority of the first two match-days for Portugal. The drama has now built to a crescendo, and something has to give. How much longer can the Seleção defy statistical averages? If math has taught me anything, it’s that data points collected over time eventually regress towards the mean. If Portugal have 25-30 attempts again, there surely must be goals.
Having crossed this country from south to north and back again, I can think of no better way for Portugal to crown the spirited performances of the first two match-days than with a resounding victory over the Hungarians. But we all know that won’t be easy. At Euro 2012, Portugal (and especially Ronaldo) exploded into form on the last matchday of the group stage. Having been in close proximity to the players, I will tell you that the belief is still there that this will be Portugal’s destiny as opposed to an ignominious departure from Euro 2016.
As Ronaldo and Pepe walked past me in the mixed zone at the Parc de Princes, they held their heads high, faces etched in stone. They’re angry, and want to do something about the injustice. They’ve endured criticism from all corners, some fair, some completely irrational. International media outlets seem content to make an evil pantomime of Cristiano Ronaldo, and the Portuguese national team by extension. But the belief has never left these players.
Elsewhere in the tournament, factors have worked out in our favor. Italy have won Group E and will not face us in the Round of 16. Should we finish as Runner-Up, our Group A opponent looks to be Wales or Slovakia, both match-ups where we should be able to control the game and create opportunities to score.
The question will remain whether we can score the crucial goals or not, but the good news is that none of our potential opponents look especially intimidating. Even Belgium, who I think we will face in the Round of 16, have their own formation and personnel problems to sort out.
All frustrations aside, our first goal was to win Group F. We can still do that on Wednesday in Lyon by beating Hungary as long as Iceland don’t defeat Austria by the same score (or more).
On the road, surveying the beautiful French countryside, I’m enjoying the quiet before the storm. But it won’t be long before the “Portugal Show” resumes, and with it the desperate drama of qualification from this toilsome group. And in the distance loom the knockout rounds. Can we reach them? The answer awaits us all at the Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
Força Seleção.
by Nathan Motz
