The Championship Blend

Santos’ selection puzzle ahead of Euro 2016 final

He’s a man that affirms precious little of his innermost thoughts. Facial expressions, hand gestures, the whole package is as non-revelatory as any you might encounter in football. And yet he’s a man who clearly knows what he wants from his squad.

Fernando Santos has transformed Portugal from an instrument of unrestrained, attacking football to an organized, compact, steel-willed machine that has yet to be defeated in competitive matches. Methods will always be subject to scrutiny in football or any other enterprise, but consistent results are hard to dispute.

Whatever emotional contrivance is brought against this squad or its manager’s tactics, the truth stands uncontested: Santos has brought this team to the doorstep of an historic event, Portugal’s first major championship trophy.

But while the overarching blueprint for success hasn’t changed, specific strategies have certainly varied from match to match. Over the course of this tournament, all 20 outfield players have been utilized, and numerous configurations tested. For example, when the 4-4-2 against Iceland failed to create enough goalscoring opportunities, Santos switched to a 4-3-3 against Austria. The switch back to 4-4-2 in the last group match against Hungary begat one of the most chaotic football matches I have ever witnessed.

In fact, Santos didn’t quite figure out his best arrangement of talent and tactics until the quarterfinal against Poland. Up until that point, Santos did well to identify weak points in the squad and make decisions on how to fix them, but the starting eleven wasn’t settled and honestly wasn’t performing to the standards that he expected. To be fair, injuries to Raphael Guerreiro, Danilo, and the poor form of Moutinho didn’t help matters. Nevertheless, every national team manager is obligated to assess the needs of their squad and plug gaps accordingly. Santos has been exceptional in this regard.

When Santos does speak, his comments are honest and focused. He praises his player's effort. Superfluous ramblings are uncommon, and he often admitted in press conferences when the team didn’t accomplish specific goals set before the match. Whenever I listened to him field questions from the media, it was clear that he was still searching for the right combination of players to properly execute his gameplan. But the nature of that gameplan is a matter on which he is unwavering.

We all what know what this version of the Seleção is about. Strong defense, acute individual brilliance, and sheer force of will. Categorically different than what we are accustomed to, and appreciably less popular with neutral audiences. But style-points aside, Santos has fostered a winning attitude amongst the players that has not gone unnoticed. Former Germany midfielder Michael Ballack said after the Round of 16 win against Croatia that “in the past, Portugal were eliminated too easily in major tournaments, but now have a new mentality.”

Even so, Santos and Portugal face their most difficult opponent yet. An opponent who has beaten us twice in recent friendlies. As excited as I am about the individual quality our own players have shown this tournament, there is reason for concern. Portugal haven’t beaten France in 41 years for starters. They boast the tournament’s top scorer in Antoine Griezmann (6) and shutout the same Germany side that I watched dismantle Slovakia 3-0 in Lille. They are in front of their home crowd, and have most of the world rooting for them to dispatch a Portugal side that many consider to be aesthetically unpalatable.

Against such odds, Santos faces his biggest selection challenge to date. Obviously, he won’t deviate from the defense-first approach that has carried the team to the final, but there are certain adaptations he will want to consider.

Pepe’s untimely injury doesn’t help matters. Though Bruno Alves deputized remarkably well against Wales, it’s no secret that he’s still prone to making rash decisions. That Ricardo Carvalho hasn’t played a minute since recovering from injury tells me that he’s unlikely to feature. After watching Carvalho turn back the years in the group stage, it was certainly hard to understand Bruno Alves’ selection against Wales, leading to speculation that Carvalho may yet be carrying a knock despite training without limitations.

From my perspective though, it’s less about Carvalho’s fitness than it is strategy. Bruno Alves is the more capable of the two physically and Santos isn’t particularly keen on making substitutions along the back four (he’s made none in 6 matches). He wants defenders who can go beyond the 90’ mark and prefers to make tactical substitutions in midfield and attack. If Pepe isn’t fit, and right now all indications are that he won’t be, expect Bruno Alves in the starting eleven on Sunday.

One of the reasons Santos doesn’t want to burn a substitution on the back four is because of his demands on our midfield. In the knockout rounds in particular, Adrien’s inclusion is most representative of the general tempo that Santos wants in the centre of the pitch. It's possible the Sporting captain may have only been included against Croatia to track Modric, but his work ethic has since become the model for how our midfield wins matches: relentless track and pursuit of the ball, and rapid recovery on defense.

For this reason, João Moutinho, a stalwart of our team for years, has struggled mightily this tournament. Many will say he is just out of form, but the reality is that he isn’t suited for Santos’ Portugal. Moutinho needs space and more fluid and direct movement through midfield. The transition to a 4-4-2 effectively ended his role as our playmaker because we no longer shift defense into attack with rapid movement through midfield.

Additionallly, Ronaldo is no longer on the wing. This fundamentally changed Portugal’s attacking methodology, and removed a critical outlet for Moutinho that has affected his usefulness to this side. Physically and tactically, Moutinho isn’t able to make good use of his best qualities in our system. Adrien offers greater tenacity and works better in tight spaces, both of which Santos values highly.

This has also enabled Renato Sanches, one of the revelations of this tournament, to make the No8 (box-to-box) role his own. Though he struggled against Wales, we’ll need his physicality against France. Some have suggested that Danilo and William should start together as a solution to the physical challenge of Pogba, Kante, and Matuidi. But neither possesses the explosive attacking edge that Sanches brings to the side. If we can’t sustain some kind of attacking threat in the centre of the pitch, we’ll be overrun even with William and Danilo in front of the back four. Starting two holding midfielders is little more than an open admission of surrender. It tells our opponent that we believe ourselves inferior and offers no threat to keep them honest. Sanches has to start.

The real challenge in midfield is how to arrange the likes of Adrien, Sanches, João Mário, Andre Gomes, etc into a cohesive unit. In this tournament, Adrien, Mário, and Sanches have all been at their best when fielded centrally. Gomes is unlikely to crack the starting eleven in my opinion because he is a skill player whose finesse might not endure the rugged nature of the match I expect against France. But what to do about the others?

Whichever configuration Santos chooses, there’s no two-ways about it: at least one of our midfielders won’t be comfortable. This is the complexity that comes into the equation when you have a surplus of talent vying for the same positions. It’s a quandary Portugal just hasn’t had to face in many years. What’s essential for Santos is that he minimizes the amount of risk we incur by fielding players out of position. The formula that seems to work best is one that allows Sanches freedom in the middle of the park, João Mário on the right, and Adrien on the left. But there remain disadvantages to this system that must be accepted.

The final piece of the puzzle is holding midfield. William or Danilo? Debate continues about which option offers greater value to Portugal, but it again comes down to strategy. Want a controlled passing tempo? Choose William. Want more raw energy? Choose Danilo. Having observed both players throughout this tournament, the only obvious conclusion is that there isn’t a tremendous gap in quality between them. They have slight advantages over each other in different facets of the game, but neither player has been so extraordinary as to make this an open-and-shut case.

William is the most likely option in my opinion because of his partnership with his compatriots from Sporting. Chemistry in midfield is tough to overvalue, and while I still believe Danilo is the more complete player, William is likely to assume the reins against France.

In defence and attack, expect no further changes. Germany gave France a torrid examination of their ability to defend crosses by overlapping fullbacks. France survived, but Cedric and Raphael will relish the opportunity to get forward in support of Nani and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Even so, there’s a good military-ism that applies: “no good plan survives contact with the enemy.” Santos will need to adapt to in-game circumstances. In the group stage, Santos frustrated many by making substitutions too late in the match. Ricardo Quaresma needs to come on sooner rather than later if our attacking impetus fails. Furthermore, subbing in Moutinho and switching to a straight 4-3-3 might be the change of pace we need for the last 20’.

Win or lose, Portugal have exceeded expectations both at home and abroad. In moments like these it’s tempting to believe that every subtle permutation in tactics might make the crucial difference. But perhaps it’s more reasonable to accept that at the end of the day, 11 warriors will take the pitch and fight for their nation.

For the Nação Valente, Santos has already done the hard part. He inspired a formidable winning spirit. He facilitated the emergence of Raphael Guerreiro, Renato Sanches, Jose Fonte, Cedric and others onto the international scene. He trusted Ricardo Quaresma. He competently and graciously dismissed negativity surrounding Ronaldo and his own tactics while defending his rational belief that winning is the ultimate objective. Rather than indulge subjective longings for a particular brand of football, Santos implemented the competitive design that has ultimately overcome all obstacles to this point.

Now one task remains. Mix just the right blend of talent and steel, and Portugal are champions. Santos always said he’d be returning from France on 11 July, and I know that our Seleção will give everything to close this glorious chapter of their history with a legendary finale.

It’s time, Força Seleção.

 

by Nathan Motz