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Betting odds lean toward Argentina winning the Ballon d’Or but Portugal’s history tells a different story

In sport, familiarity fosters contempt, a reality that has led to some of the greatest rivalries in sports history. Time after time, when you’re facing an old foe, the stakes are higher, and emotions are inflated. Football has, perhaps, produced some of the most notable rivalries including the likes of Scotland vs England, Argentina vs Brazil, and Portugal vs Spain.

However, at an individual level, you also have the likes of Portugal vs Argentina, though this is more because of the competition between Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. This rivalry is particularly prickly when it comes to the prestigious honor of the Ballon d’Or. Messi may have football betting odds of 1.36 to win the 2021 Ballon d’Or following his shock move to Paris Saint-Germain, while Ronaldo has odds of 17.0, but, according to history, we shouldn’t write Portugal out of the competition just yet. 

Portugal has won the Ballon d’Or a grand total of seven times. Granted, Portugal shares this title with Germany, which, according to the football predictions, is also in the running for this year’s award as Robert Lewandowski has odds of 7.0 to win. Still, sharing the title does not matter because Portugal is still beating Argentina, which has six wins to its name, with Messi winning all of them. 

The Messi vs Ronaldo and Argentina vs Portugal debate has been stripped, dissected, and examined for years, and the world is still divided. Yet, when you look at the numbers, it’s unmistakable that overall, Portugal has produced more Ballon d’Or winners. This includes the likes of Ronaldo, the highest goalscorer in Euro 2020, Luís Figo, who won 127 caps for the Portugal national team, and Eusébio, one of the greatest players of all time. In his professional career, Eusébio scored an impressive 733 goals in 745 matches. 

Meanwhile, Argentina has only ever produced one Ballon d’Or winner, and what happens when Messi retires from his professional career? Inevitably, Ronaldo will retire too, but unlike Argentina, Portugal has other contenders in this year’s competition, meaning that the country is behind some of the best talent playing right now. For instance, while the odds aren’t great, Bruno Fernandes (who joined Manchester United in January 2020), João Félix, and Rúben Dias are all potential 2021 Ballon d’Or contenders. 

There’s no doubt that Portugal’s rivalry with Spain is stronger. In fact, this was reiterated in 2012 when Spain beat Portugal in a penalty shootout in the semi-finals of the UEFA European Championship. Still, with the countless years of Messi and Ronaldo competing with each other, Argentina and Portugal have developed their own competition.

While most punters will be placing wagers on Messi, and thus Argentina, to win the 2021 Ballon d’Or, we dont think it’s fair to write Portugal off just yet. After all, the country is at the top of the leader board in the competition, and aside from Ronaldo, has plenty of talent in this year’s running. Plus, who says Messi will succeed at PSG and in Ligue 1? It may take him a while to settle in, giving Ronaldo and Fernandes time to bag a few goals and get a leg up on Messi.

 

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