Portugal go into the 2026 World Cup with one goal of lifting the trophy for the first time in their history. With this almost certainly Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup at 41, he will want to add the one major honour that has eluded him throughout a career that has produced almost everything else.
For a squad that features across the FIFA World Cup 2026 odds as a genuine contender, the expectations are high. The squad is exceptional in attacking areas, but the gap between producing performances at a World Cup and actually winning one has always been where Portugal come unstuck.
The quarter-final problem
Portugal have reached the World Cup quarter-finals or better twice in the modern era. They actually went one better and were knocked out by France in the semi-finals in 2006 after a run that briefly suggested they could go all the way. In 2022, they dismantled Switzerland 6-1 in the round of 16, only to lose to Morocco 1-0 four days later in one of the more deflating results a Portuguese side has produced. The pattern each time is similar: a promising run, a performance that convinces you they are ready to go deep, and then an exit that leaves the squad looking tactically rigid or mentally fragile at the decisive moment.
In the Morocco game in 2022, their opponents barely had a shot on target, yet still won. Portugal had 74 per cent possession, controlled every surface-level metric, and lost to a single header at a set piece. It was a performance shaped by indecision and a lack of cutting edge under real pressure, and Fernando Santos paid for it with his job shortly after.
What is different this time?
Roberto Martínez has spent three years rebuilding the identity of the squad. Portugal won the Nations League in 2025, beating Spain on penalties in the final, which at minimum tells you this group can close out big nights. The spine of the team is settled. Diogo Costa is among the best goalkeepers in Europe. Rúben Dias and Gonçalo Inácio are a reliable centre-back partnership. Vitinha has developed into one of the most composed midfielders at club level, and his role at the base of Martínez’s midfield gives Portugal something they have often lacked: structure without sacrificing the ball.
Going forward, the options are genuinely wide. Rafael Leão is dangerous when switched on. Francisco Conceição has carried momentum from a strong season at Juventus. Bruno Fernandes brings creativity from deep. The squad is younger in key areas than it was in Qatar, and there is less dependence on a single player to provide every decisive moment.
The Ronaldo factor
Cristiano Ronaldo will be 41 by the time the tournament starts, and everything around his involvement could tip the tournament either way. He remains Portugal’s captain and leading scorer, and Martínez has backed him publicly throughout. Ronaldo has scored in every World Cup he has appeared in, a record that speaks to his consistency at this level regardless of age.
The question is not whether he can contribute. It is whether Portugal can function effectively in the moments where he cannot. In 2022, Gonçalo Ramos answered that question emphatically against Switzerland, then never got another chance. How Martínez handles that balance in the knockout rounds will matter more than any tactical shape.
The honest assessment
Portugal have the squad depth with a core of players operating at the top of European club football. Group K, containing DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia is manageable enough to ensure they arrive at the knockouts fresh and confident.
Whether that is enough to finally win a World Cup is harder to say. Martínez’s record in knockout football as an international manager remains the one legitimate question mark. He reached a World Cup semi-final with Belgium in 2018 and never improved on it. Portugal have a ceiling problem that has existed across multiple generations and multiple coaches. The talent has rarely been the issue. Turning it into a World Cup win is a different challenge entirely, and 2026 will be the clearest test of whether this group is built differently to the ones that came before.
